The Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping has estimated that global biomethane production could reach 21 billion cubic metres (bcm) in a base case scenario by 2030, positioning the fuel as a potentially significant compliance pathway for the International Maritime Organization's Net-Zero Framework (IMO NZF).
The analysis models NZF-induced unconstrained demand for low-emissions fuel at approximately 30 bcm-equivalent of biomethane by 2030. Under base-case production assumptions, biomethane could theoretically address around 70% of shipping's early decarbonisation demand, making it the most cost-competitive near-term fuel pathway available.
However, the critical enabler is mass balancing — an accounting mechanism that would allow biomethane injected into existing natural gas grids to be credited to maritime fuel consumption through certified chain-of-custody systems. Without globally harmonized mass balancing, shipping would depend on physically segregated biomethane supply chains, which remain difficult and expensive to scale before 2030.
The research models two scenarios. In the base case, regional biomethane production grows at 15% compound annual growth rate through 2030, reaching 21 bcm and 19 million tonnes LSFO-equivalent. In a policy-driven maximum case with 38% CAGR, production could reach 52 bcm by 2030 — far below the IEA's reported global technical potential of biomethane, suggesting the constraint is infrastructure, certification and regulatory frameworks rather than feedstock availability.
The analysis positions biomethane as a bridging fuel for the decade 2030–2040, during which NZF-induced demand accelerates dramatically — reaching 100 million tonnes LSFO-equivalent by 2035. As longer-term demand grows, cross-sectoral competition from road transport, aviation and heating will likely constrain shipping's access to biomethane supply.
Additionally, the methane-capable fleet represents an uptake constraint. Market data suggests that by 2030, only around 70% of the global methane-capable dual-fuel fleet will consist of container vessels that could use liquefied biomethane. Fleet investment decisions made now will lock in propulsion choices for decades, meaning insufficient methane-capable vessel deployment could undermine biomethane's practical compliance role.
The regulatory implications are significant. If the IMO NZF includes a workable mass-balancing framework, backed by harmonized certification standards, biomethane's scalability improves substantially. If not, shipping's access to the broader pool of available biomethane volumes will remain constrained to regionally-concentrated, physically-segregated supply chains.
The MMMCZCS research suggests shipping could command 56% of the 2030 base-case biomethane supply if all methane-capable container vessels used solely liquefied biomethane. However, this represents only one scenario within a broader competitive landscape where heating, industrial process, and road-transport sectors also pursue biomethane for decarbonisation.
Global biomethane supply could meet 70% of shipping’s 2030 decarbonisation demand
