The UK’s plans to use large-scale carbon-removal technologies in the 2030s could expose the public purse to billions of pounds in costs while delivering uncertain climate benefits, new analysis suggests.
Carbon removals - including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS) - form a key part of the government’s strategy for reaching net zero.
Ministers expect these engineered systems to compensate for emissions from sectors such as aviation and agriculture, which are difficult to decarbonise fully.
Ten commercial-scale projects have been proposed in the UK so far, six of which are government-funded pilots.
However, a review of project documentation indicates that almost all are delayed, cancelled or offering little public information.
No commercial-scale facility has begun construction, and no carbon has been captured at scale in the UK to date.
One of the most prominent schemes - fitting carbon-capture units to Drax’s biomass power station - could require around £30bn in subsidies, according to the analysis.
That figure exceeds the UK’s entire budget for carbon capture and storage.
Costs for other BECCS projects are unclear due to limited disclosures, while early DACCS pilots remain far more expensive than the government’s long-term targets.
Similar international projects have also struggled to meet performance expectations.
The report concludes that the technological and economic viability of engineered removals remains highly uncertain.
Some overseas DACCS plants have fallen short of their carbon-capture goals, and there are ongoing concerns about whether BECCS at biomass plants can achieve genuine net removals once supply-chain emissions are taken into account.
Analysts argue that while early-stage pilot work should continue, large-scale public funding for commercial deployment should be delayed until the technologies are proven.
They recommend that the government prioritise established measures over the next decade - including rapid renewables expansion, electricity-grid upgrades, and the rollout of heat pumps and electric vehicles - to guarantee emissions cuts.
“With time running out to reduce emissions, the UK cannot afford to bank on carbon-removal technologies that may never perform as promised,” said Josie Murdoch, UK energy and climate analyst at Ember.
“Public funds in the 2030s should go first to proven solutions that can deliver quickly.”
Although long-term plans still envisage a significant role for BECCS and DACCS by mid-century, expectations for deployment this decade have already been scaled back.
Despite early ambitions for commercial-scale operation by 2030, none of the ten announced UK projects has progressed beyond research and development, making rapid rollout increasingly unlikely.
UK warned on unproven carbon-removal plans as Drax costs soar
